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House prices will not fall sharply
House prices will not fall sharply 24 April 2020 Matthew Hughes Article by Christopher Joye, Columnist Source: Australian Financial Review April 24, 2020 Everyone loves a contrarian position, and I enjoy betting against conventional wisdom. It is hard to find a more emphatic and universally held belief than the consensus view that Australian house prices will slump sharply by anywhere between 10 per cent (Commonwealth Bank), 20 per cent (AMP) or 30 per cent (numerous others). This is, after all, the Great Virus Crisis (GVC): a one-in-100-year shock that the Reserve Bank of Australia judges will drive double-digit unemployment. So I will repeat what I have publicly and privately advised the many folks who have inquired about my forecast for the $7 trillion-plus residential real estate market: home values are unlikely to fall materially and, in my central case, will either move sideways or at most fall by up to 5 per cent over the next three to six months, after which the robust cyclical boom will resume. After calling strong house price growth and the ensuing bubble between 2013 and 2017, predicting a 10 per cent correction in early 2017 when prices were climbing, and then forecasti
Article by Christopher Joye, Columnist Source: Australian Financial Review April 24, 2020 Everyone loves… Read Article